How the Calculations Work

The methodology behind Fantasy Reckoning's analytics

Overview

Fantasy Reckoning generates 4 cards for each manager, designed to separate skill from luck and give every manager an honest assessment of their season.

Card 1: The Leader Your management style and skill profile

Card 2: The Ledger Where your points came from (and where they went)

Card 3: The Lineup How well you deployed your roster

Card 4: The Legend The story of your season (skill vs luck)

All calculations use official data from Yahoo's Fantasy API, including weekly rosters, transactions, draft results, and matchup outcomes.

Card 1: The Leader

Manager Archetype & Skill Percentiles

Manager Archetype

Your archetype reflects your management STYLE, not your results. We analyze behavioral signals to categorize how you played:

Transaction count (roster moves made during the season)
Trade activity (number of trades completed)
Lineup efficiency (how close to optimal you set lineups)
Scoring variance (how much your weekly scores fluctuated)

Archetype examples:

The Tinkerer: 20+ roster moves, constantly adjusting
The Loyalist: 5 or fewer moves, trusted draft picks
The Dealer: 3+ trades, active in the market
The Optimizer: 93%+ lineup efficiency
The Rollercoaster: High week-to-week scoring variance

Skill Percentiles

We rank you against your league in four dimensions:

Draft Performance: Value your draft picks produced relative to cost
Lineup Efficiency: Percentage of optimal points captured
Bye Week Management: How well you navigated bye weeks
Waiver Activity: Points gained from waiver pickups you started

Card 2: The Ledger

Points Earned & Points Forsaken

Your Balance

Four categories show where value came from:

Draft Points: Total points scored by players you drafted
Waiver Points: Total points scored by waiver pickups
Trade Impact: Net points gained/lost from trades
Costly Drops: Points your dropped players scored for OTHER teams

Key Moves

Best Value (Draft): Highest points-per-dollar (auction) or points-above-round-average (snake)
Biggest Bust (Draft): Worst return on investment among healthy players
Best Add (Waivers): Waiver pickup who scored most while started
Trade Win/Loss: Best or worst trade by net points
Costly Drop: Player you dropped who scored most for opponents

Injury Exclusion for Busts

Players who missed 4 or more games due to injury (O, IR, or D status) are excluded from "biggest bust" consideration. Getting hurt isn't a bust - it's bad luck.

Example: You drafted a WR in Round 2 who tore his ACL in Week 3 and finished with 45 points. He's not your "biggest bust" - he was injured. Your Round 3 RB who was healthy all year but only scored 80 points? That's a bust.

Card 3: The Lineup

Deployment Analysis

Lineup Efficiency

Each week, we calculate your OPTIMAL lineup - the highest-scoring combination of players from your roster that fits your league's position requirements.

Efficiency = (Points you scored) / (Optimal points possible) x 100

Example: Your optimal lineup would score 125 points, you scored 112.
Efficiency = 112/125 = 89.6%

League average efficiency is typically around 88-92%.

Actual vs Optimal Record

We simulate your season with perfect lineup decisions. The difference shows how many wins you left on the table due to lineup mistakes.

Pivotal Moment

Fatal Error: A benching decision that directly cost you a win
Clutch Call: A start/sit that won you a close game

Card 4: The Legend

Skill vs Luck Analysis

The Reckoning (True Skill Record)

We calculate what your record "should have been" by removing luck factors:

True Skill Record = Actual Record - Luck Factors

Fortune's Hand (Luck Factors)

Schedule Luck: Measures whether you faced opponents on good or bad weeks.

Example: Opponent averages 105 points but scored 85 when you faced them. That's favorable schedule luck.

Injury Toll: Games lost because key starters were injured.

Example: Your RB was on IR and scored 2 points. League RB average is 14 points. You lost by 8. Those 12 lost points would have won the game.

Opponent Blunders: Wins earned because your opponent made lineup mistakes.

Example: You won 105-102. Opponent had 15 points on their bench in better matchups. Their optimal lineup was 117. That's a gifted win.

Agent of Chaos

The player who most dramatically affected your season with a single performance - either a boom that won you a game or a bust that cost you one.

Data Sources & Notes

Data Source: All data comes from Yahoo Fantasy's official API including weekly rosters, transactions, draft results, and matchup outcomes.

League Support:

Yahoo Fantasy Football leagues
Auction and snake drafts
Any league size (8, 10, 12, 14+ teams)
Head-to-head scoring

Limitations:

Superflex/2QB leagues: QB scarcity adjustments are approximate
IDP leagues: Defensive player analysis limited
Keeper/Dynasty: Historical keeper values not factored into draft analysis

Calculations are deterministic - the same league data will always produce the same results.

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